Origin and movement of cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal
Keywords:Storm, Probable location, Striking probability, Threatening Probability
Using 1891-1997 data of cyclonic storm positions an attempt is made to study probability of a storm located at about 500 kms in the Bay from the coast to strike or threaten a given station or a given state. It is found that probable location of formation of storms affecting Tamil Nadu coast is 9.3° N / 85.0° E in the month of October and November, for the storms affecting Andhra Pradesh is around 11.5° N/87. 0° E in May and October and for the storms affecting Orissa is 16. 0° N / 89. 5° E in May and October. The storms affecting West Bengal have their origin around 14.8° N / 88. 6° E in May and 17.0° N / 88. 8° E in October. It is also found that the track of a given storm during post monsoon months (October-December) depends on the track of the earlier storm formed in the same season over Bay. Mean direction of storm over the Bay of Bengal is estimated based on the mean direction of the storm formed earlier in the Bay by a regression equation.
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