Storm surge prediction and frequency analysis for Andhra coast of India
Keywords:Storm surges, Coastal flooding, Return period, Risk analysis, Model validation and Bay of Bengal
Storm surges associated with severe cyclonic storms are common occurrences along the east coast of India. The coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh have experienced major surges in the past. Storm surges and the rains associated with cyclones are major causes for coastal flooding in this region. An attempt has been made, in this paper, to simulate surges along the Andhra coast that would have occurred due to severe cyclones during 1891-1996. Inland inundation due to surges is also estimated by using an empirical formula. The computed results are validated with the available observations. The comparison using post-storm survey reports, appears reasonably good to assert that the model is capable of predicting the peak surge amplitude and its location. Frequency of occurrence relationships is obtained for various zones along the coastal region for the purpose of risk analysis.
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