Climate Change Trend Assessment of Precipitation for Historic and Future Period in Palar River Basin, India

Abstract

The objective of the study is to analyse historical and future precipitation in the Palar River Basin, India. India Meteorological Department gridded precipitation data for 1901 – 2020, and the best-fitted NASA Earth Exchange-Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data for 2006 – 2099 are analysed for annual and seasonal timescales. The analysis of the performance criteria using the Taylor diagram and the efficiency criteria revealed that MIROC ESM Global Climate Model (GCM) is the most appropriate climate model that represents the climatic conditions of the study area. The Mann–Kendall's (MK) test reveals a significantly increasing trend in the annual time scale for historical and moderate emission scenarios. Historical precipitation and temporal variability are less pronounced compared to future climate scenarios. The historical precipitation at grid points P6 and P4 evidenced the high increasing and decreasing variability. The future climate projection from MIROC ESM GCM showed an increased precipitation rate in both emission scenarios. In the first decade of the 21st century, actual precipitation resembles the moderate emission scenario, and in the second decade, the pattern resembles the high emission scenario. Relative to the baseline period (2000-2020) the basin would receive a precipitation increase of 12% in the moderate emission scenario and 7% in the high emission scenario. The study results would benefit integrated water resource management, mitigation of extreme events, and sustainable development.