Impact of climate change on potato crop in India: Using multi-model ensemble climate projection

Abstract

Potato is an important food crop in India, to quantifying the impacts of climate change on potato production is necessary to develop proper strategies to ensure food security under changing climatic conditions. This study employed the validated SUBSTOR-Potato crop model and downscaled climate data from various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to project the impact of climate change on potato yields for 2040-2069 (mid-future) and 2070-2099 (far-future). Results indicated the increasing trend of maximum and minimum temperature while diurnal temperature range (DTR) shows decreasing trend over the study area. Without elevated CO₂, tuber yields could decrease by 3.6% to 20.5%, depending on the scenario and time period. However, with elevated CO₂, yields could increase by 28.7% to 36.5% under optimistic conditions and 34.4% to 35.9% under pessimistic conditions. The potato growing season would increase under a warming climate. Overall, the future warming with elevated CO₂ concentration across the states showed positive impact (maximum in Madhya Pradesh +36.5%), while without elevated CO₂ concentration, a negative effect has been observed over the states except in Madhya Pradesh where +4.6% to +13.5% increase in yield have been observed. However, uncertainties in this study might arise from the choice of different RCMs selection but the results are important for the scientific community and policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to improve potato production in India.