Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Teesta basin and heavy rainfall warning over Teesta basin & adjoining areas in north Bengal & Sikkim using synoptic analog method
Keywords:Synoptic analog method, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), Average Areal Precipitation (AAP), Teesta, Basin, Heavy rainfall, Warning, Percentage Correct (PC)
This article presents the method to issue Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Teesta catchment. A synoptic analog model has been developed analyzing 10 years (1998-2007) data for Teesta catchment. The outcomes are then validated with the realized Average Areal Precipitation (AAP) for the corresponding synoptic situations during south-west monsoon season 2008 (1st June to 30th September) over Teesta basin and results revealed that there exists a good agreement between day-to-day QPF with corresponding realized AAP calculated over this basin next day. In addition, occurrence of heavy rainfall has also been studied in this paper.
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