Markov-dependent geometric models for weather spells and weather cycles -A study
Keywords:mathematical and probability models, Markov-dependent geometric models, dry weather cycles.
The repetitive behaviour of seasonal weather has been studied earlier by many using a variety or mathematical and probability models. The present paper proposes to investigate the empirical validity of Markov-dependent geometric models for wet and dry spells, and weather cycles. The daily rainfall of 50 years duration serves as the data-base for the study.
The necessary formulae based on the geometric probability models using Markovian probabilities for dry and wet days, are given for lengths of dry spells, wet spells and wet dry weather cycles.
The data, as judged by x2-test, seems to fit better for wet-spells than for dry spells.
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