Recurvature of tropical cyclones in the Indian seas
After study of recurvature of tropical cyclones in the western north Atlantic from 1961 to 1977; Gray (1981) devised criteria for prediction of turning motion of tropical cyclones using 200 and 900 mb composited winds in a radius of 7 deg.-11 deg. Lat./Long, from the centre of the storm, He showed that the components of vertical wind shear between 200 and 900 mb parallel to the direction of motion of the cyclone, are different for cyclones moving straight, turning left and turning right, 24 to 36 hours in advance of the turning motion, These differences he used as a means of prediction of recurvature of a cyclone 24 to 36 hours in advance. We tested this method for the cycloncs of the Bay of Bengal and found that they are applicable in cases of severe cyclones which were so 24 to 36 hours in advance of the recurvature and were on the high seas, The results
were less definite in cases of cyclones or weaker systems or systems close to the coast.
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