On forecasting daily summer maximum temperature at Madras

Authors

  • Y. E. A. RAJ

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v49i1.3602

Keywords:

Maximum temperature, Prediction, Persistence, Advection, Screening regression, Forecast

Abstract

Forecasting schemes based on statistical techniques have been developed to forecast daily summer (March-May) maximum temperatures of Madras. A set of optimal number of predictors were chosen from a large number of parameters by employing stepwise forward screening. Separate forecasting schemes for Madras city and airport, with lead time of 24 and 9 hr were developed from the data of 12 years and tested in an independent sample of 4 years. Maximum temperature of the previous day, normal daily maximum temperature, temperature advection index and morning zonal wind at Madras at 900 hPa level were among the predictors selected. The schemes yielded good results providing 77-87% correct, forecasts with skill scores of 0.29-0.57.

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Published

01-01-1998

How to Cite

[1]
Y. E. A. . RAJ, “On forecasting daily summer maximum temperature at Madras”, MAUSAM, vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 95–102, Jan. 1998.

Issue

Section

Research Papers

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