Forecasting of pentad rainfall character in Kerala coast during July
Utilising the 700.mb level, 5-day mean and 1-day mean (i.e., mean of 00 and 12 GMT) charts preceding the occurrence of extreme abnormal and extreme subnormal rainfall in Kerala, significant parameters have been obtained. These parameters have been used in evolving the scheme based on contingency technique for forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly in Kerala. In this scheme, forecast for the next 5.day period is issued after every two or three days, depending on the periods of the mean 700.mb contour charts for overlapping pentads.
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