Cyclone track forecast by combining persistence, climatology and synoptic method


  • B. K. BANDYOPADHYAY India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • CHARAN SINGH India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India



Persistence, Climatology, Weightage, Pressure change


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;fn pØokr ds /kjkry ls Vdjkus ds 12 ls 24 ?kaVs ds vanj dh mldh izfØ;k ij fopkj fd;k tk; rks 24 ?kaVs ds vanj dk nkc ifjorZu] tyok;q ,oa LFkkf;Ro dh rqyuk esa vf/kd egRoiw.kZ gks tkrk gS rFkk /kjkry ls Vdjkus ds 12 ?kaVs iwoZ dk ?kaVkokj nkc ifjorZu pØokr ds /kjkry ls Vdjkus ds lgh LFkku dk irk yxkus esa enn djrk gSA

Tropical cyclones are deadly natural disasters. They came large loss of lives and properties. After the landfall, the main damages from cyclones are due to strong winds and storm surges. The forecast of landfall point is most important to forecasters as well as the agencies who are engaged to take safety measures or rehabilitation works. In this paper an attempt has been made to forecast point and time of landfall. Personnel computer based, track forecast models are already in use, in India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) different forecasting offices. The existing model requires cyclone track climatology of the basin and past positions of cyclones. Generally pressure falls along the coast, 24 to 36 hours in advance of cyclone’s landfall. This parameter, in combination with other two, with equal weightage i.e., 1/3 (Persistence + Climatology + Pressure change) have been used for track forecasting in this study. Results are comparatively superior to the results obtained only by using climatology and persistence.

                When the system is within 12 to 24 hour prior to landfall, the 24 hour pressure change becomes more important than Climatology and Persistence and 12 hour prior landfall the hourly pressure change helps in pinpointing the landfall point.




How to Cite

B. K. . BANDYOPADHYAY and C. . SINGH, “Cyclone track forecast by combining persistence, climatology and synoptic method”, MAUSAM, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 619–628, Oct. 2006.



Research Papers