A study on precipitation trends and drought climatology over Jammu & Kashmir, India: 1980-2020

Abstract

A study has been conducted on precipitation trends and drought climatology over Jammu and Kashmir during the period 1980 to 2020. Trends of Precipitation over different months were analyzed using Mekendal test, Spearman Rho’s test, linear regression analysis and Innovative trend analysis. The analysis of Mekendal test showed decreasing significant precipitation trends (p<0.01) during post monsoon season (October and December) with slope value -1.06, -1.24 and -1.03 mm/year for Srinagar, Qazigund and Baderwah respectively. Similar decreasing significant precipitation trends (p<0.01) were observed for pre Monsoon season (March-May) with slope value -1.59 and -1.58 mm/year for Baderwah and Qazigund. Decreasing significant precipitation trends (p<0.01) were observed for Kupwara in the month of March with slope value -2.94 mm/year and Baderwah in the month of May with slope value -1.73 mm/year. The results of Innovative trend analysis showed decreasing significant precipitation trends (p<0.01) in the month of March for Srinagar, Qazigund, Kupwara and Baderwah with slope value -1.56, -3.16, -4.11 and -1.94 mm/year respectively. Increasing significant precipitation trends (p<0.01) in the month of September for Srinagar and Qazigund with slope value 1.18 and 1.87 mm/year respectively. The seasonal analysis results showed decreasing significant precipitation trends (p<0.01) in post Monsoon season (October-December) for Srinagar, Qazigund and Kupwara with slope value -0.95, -1.08 and -0.64 mm/year respectively. The annual precipitation trends showed decreasing significant trend for all the stations under consideration. The highest precipitation reduction was observed over Katra with slope value -6.68 mm/year. Probability of occurrence of Meteorological drought was determined for all the stations and results showed that out of total 40 years of study, 6 years were identified as moderate drought years for Srinagar, Qazigund and Kupwara (1985, 1990, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002), 2 moderate drought years for Jammu, and Katra (1987 and 2009) and 2 moderate drought years for Baderwah (1999 and 2001). The amount of rainfall at different probability levels (10-90%) called assured rainfall have been computed for each standard week by fitting Incomplete Gamma Distribution model. The analysis results revealed the maximum impact of western disturbances during 4^th to 16^th standard Meteorological Week and impact of Monsoon during 28^th to 37^th standard Meteorological Week for stations Srinagar, Qazigund, Kupwara and Baderwah. The impact of Monsoon activity is notable and found maximum activity during 25^th to 40^th standard Meteorological Week over Jammu and Katra station.