Short to medium range impact based forecasting of heavy rainfall in India

Authors

  • Mrutyunjay Mohapatra India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES, New Delhi – 110 003
  • Anshul Chauhan India Meteorological Department, MoES, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • Avnish Varshney India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Suman Gurjar India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • MT Bushair India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Monica Sharma India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • RK Jenamani India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Kuldeep Srivastava India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Pulak Guhathakurta India Meteorological Department, MoES
  • Rajib Chattopadhyay India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Mamta Yadav India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Radheshyam Sharma India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • AK Mitra India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Ananda KumarDas India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Sankar Nath India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Naresh Kumar India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Soma Senroy India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • T Arulalan India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Amit Bharadwaj India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • DR Pattanaik India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • BP Yadav India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Rahul Saxena India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Ashok KumarDas India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Asok Raja India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • B Hemlata India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • KVH Arun India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • S Nitha India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Atul KSingh India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Shobhit Katiyar India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Krishna Mishra India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Surendra PratapSingh India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Shashikant Mishra India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Akhil Srivastava India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • B Geetha India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • M Rahul India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • K Nagaratna India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • HR Biswas India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Manorama Mohanty India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • R Thapliyal India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Shivinder Singh India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Shivinder Singh India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Sonam Lotus India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Sandeep KumarSharma India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • VK Mini India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Sunit Das India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • GK Das India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Abhishek Anand India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES
  • Gayatri KVani India Meteorological Department (IMD), MoES

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v74i2.6180

Keywords:

Monsoon, Heavy rainfall, Impact based forecast, Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk

Abstract

There have been major advances in the last few decades in our understanding of heavy rainfall during monsoon season due to substantial progress in both observation and numerical modelling of monsoon. All these resulted in more accurate forecast of heavy rainfall in short to medium range, (upto five days) with 40% improvement in accuracy of heavy rainfall forecast in recent five years (2018-2022) as compared to previous five years. However, improvement of forecast and warning skill is not sufficient to minimize damage to lives and property. It is essential to extend to hazard forecast systems (hazard models) and then to impact and risk assessment with stakeholder interaction for risk based warning (RBW) and response action to protect lives and livelihoods

 

Considering all these, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has introduced impact based forecast (IBF) for heavy rainfall at meteorological sub-division level since July 2013 and at district and city scale in August, 2019 in its short to medium range forecasts and nowcasts indicating the likely impact of the heavy rainfall in different sectors and required response actions. Thereafter the IBF of heavy rainfall has undergone several changes over the years. Currently, the IBF being implemented by IMD includes all the four components, viz., (i) meteorological hazards, (ii) geophysical hazards, (iii) geospatial applications and (iv) socio-economic conditions and it utilises a web-GIS based decision support system (DSS). In this study we have reviewed various approaches and stages of development of IBF of heavy rainfall in India. The success of IBF of heavy rainfall will enhance the management of critical resources like agriculture, water & power and support urban and disaster management sectors among others while reducing loss of life and property.

Downloads

Published

31-03-2023

How to Cite

[1]
M. . Mohapatra, “Short to medium range impact based forecasting of heavy rainfall in India”, MAUSAM, vol. 74, no. 2, pp. 311–344, Mar. 2023.

Issue

Section

SPECIAL ISSUE IWM-7

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 1 2 3 4 5 6