Elucidating the causal relationship between earthquake activity and avalanche occurrences

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between seismic activity and avalanche occurrences in the Western Himalayas, focusing on the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, parts of Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The region is seismically active, lying within the highest seismic zones of the Himalayas, and is prone to avalanches due to its high-altitude, steep terrain, and glacial environment. Using four decades of data (1980–2018) on avalanche occurrences and seismic events, we aimed to isolate the influence of seismic activity on avalanche triggers, excluding meteorological factors such as fresh snowfall and wind deposition. Our analysis reveals a significant correlation between seismic events and avalanche occurrences, with a marked increase in avalanches following seismic tremors, independent of snow-related factors. These findings suggest that seismic activity plays a critical role in triggering avalanches in this region. The study’s insights contribute to improved avalanche forecasting and hazard assessment in the Western Himalayas, where seismic-induced avalanches pose significant risks to life and infrastructure. Further research is recommended to refine the understanding of the influence of earthquake epicenter distance on avalanche triggers, potentially enhancing predictive capabilities and mitigation strategies.