Evaluation on Indian Summer Monsoon in High Resolution Prototypes of Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Abstract

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a crucial component of the global climate system, significantly influencing weather patterns, agriculture, and water resources across India. However, accurately simulating and predicting key aspects of the ISM—such as its onset, intensity, and variability—remains a challenge due to the intricate interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface processes. This study evaluates the performance of high-resolution prototypes of the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS) in simulating the ISM's essential characteristics. As a comprehensive approach to Earth system modeling, the UFS aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of weather and climate predictions by integrating various atmospheric, ocean and land surface processes.

The evaluation focuses on critical monsoon features, including onset timing, heavy precipitation events, monsoon depressions, and wind patterns, using high-resolution UFS prototypes such as UFS applications at different spatial resolutions targeted for medium range weather (GFS). It addresses the UFS's capability to capture monsoon dynamics across short-, and medium time scales.  Initial results indicate that these UFS prototypes demonstrate improved skill in simulating ISM dynamics and precipitation patterns over the Indian subcontinent. The study identifies areas for further model refinement and discusses the potential of the UFS to enhance ISM forecasting, with potential implications for agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster mitigation.