Thermodynamic behaviors associated with the intensity of Tropical Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards, often resulting in significant human casualties and economic damage. Accurate forecasting and early warnings are crucial for minimizing these adverse impacts. This study evaluates the heat flux, warm core structure of TCs, and relationship with intensity using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, focusing on three notable cyclones: Amphan (2020), Bulbul (2019), and Titli (2018). The model was initialized with Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)/Final Analysis (FNL) data for boundary and initial conditions. The simulated heat flux, warm core structure, and TC intensity were validated against reanalysis and best track datasets. The results demonstrate that the WRF model effectively reproduces heat flux, warm core characteristics, and the relationship with the intensity of the selected TCs, underscoring its utility in TC research and forecasting.