Regional aspects of global climate change simulations : Validation and assessment of climate response over Indian monsoon region to transient increase of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols
Keywords:Climate models, Climate change, Regional climatic scenario, Downscaling, Monsoon change, Climate sensitivity
The regional climatic impacts associated with global climatic change and their assessment are very important since agriculture, water resources, ecology etc., are all vulnerable to climatic changes on regional scale. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations provide a range of scenarios, which can be used, for the assessment of impacts and development of adaptive or mitigative strategies. Validation of the models against the observations and establishing the sensitivity to climate change forcing are essential before the model projections are used for assessment of possible impacts. Moreover model simulated climate projections are often of coarse resolution while the models used for impact assessment, (e.g. crop simulation models, or river runoff models etc.) operate on a higher spatial resolution. This spatial mismatch can be overcome by adopting an appropriate strategy of downscaling the GCM output.
This study examines two AOGCM (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM2) climate change simulations for their performance in the simulation of monsoon climate over India and the sensitivity of the simulated monsoon climate to transient changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The results show that the two models simulate the gross features of climate over India reasonably well. However the inter-model differences in simulation of mean characteristics, sensitivity to forcing and in the simulation of climate change suggest need for caution. Further an empirical downscaling approach in used to assess the possibility of using GCM projections for preparation of regional climate change scenario for India.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2021 MAUSAM
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
All articles published by MAUSAM are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. This permits anyone.
Anyone is free:
- To Share - to copy, distribute and transmit the work
- To Remix - to adapt the work.
Under the following conditions:
- Share - copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt - remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even