An objective method of weekly rainfall anomaly over central India

Abstract

The present investigation is an attempt to evolve a technique for forecasting weekly rainfall anomaly over central India (east and west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha). Composite circulation anomaly charts for conditions antecedent to active and weak monsoon spells were used as guides to pick up parameters of predictive value, like the zonal wind shear over Peninsula in the lower and middle tropospheres. A relationship using contingency technique has been used to prepare a forecast scheme. Testing of the scheme on independent data yields encouraging results.