Variability of scatterometer based surface vorticity over Arabian Sea and its use in monsoon onset forecasting
Keywords:QuikSCAT, Oceansat-2, Vorticity anomaly, Monsoon onset, Precursor, Outgoing long wave Radiation (OLR), Medium range
This paper presents the results of the study undertaken to investigate the changes in the surface wind and vorticity fields over south Arabian Sea and adjoining north Indian Ocean and their association with monsoon onset over Kerala. For this purpose QuikSCAT daily gridded data of recent 10 years (2000-2009) have been utilized. The results show that there is a rising trend in the surface wind speed and vorticity over south Arabian Sea about 4-7 days before the monsoon onset over Kerala. Thus, the rising trends in the surface wind speed and vorticity over south Arabian Sea seem to be a good precursor of monsoon onset over Kerala. Continuous monitoring of Oceansat-2 scatterometer surface wind and vorticity fields over south Arabian Sea and adjoining north Indian Ocean during 15th May to 15th June could provide predictive indications of monsoon onset over Kerala on medium range scale.
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