Impact of temperature and rainfall variability on agriculture and horticulture crops in the North-Western Indian Himalaya

Abstract

Climate variability, particularly fluctuations in temperature and rainfall, showed significant impacts on the agricultural sector, especially on cropping systems critical to ensuring food security. A comprehensive study assessed the influence of both positive and negative climate variability on agriculture and horticulture in the Sirmour district of Himachal Pradesh. This investigation analyzed the complex relationship between climate variables and crop productivity over 27 years (1995–2021), providing insights crucial for developing climate-resilient farming strategies. The statistical tools and models were employed to evaluate long-term trends in key climatic variables, with a focus on determining the significance and rate of observed changes. Over the study period, a significant decline in both maximum and minimum temperatures during the Kharif (summer) season was observed, with rates of -0.080°C/year and -0.090°C/year, respectively. Trend analysis of Kharif crops indicated a significant increase in the productivity of rice (0.046 t/ha/year) and pulses (0.020 t/ha/year), while maize showed a non-significant increase in productivity. In the horticulture sector, significant declines in both maximum and minimum temperatures were observed during the fruit-setting stage in the temperate zone, suggesting climate-induced alterations across multiple phenological stages. Furthermore, in the sub-tropical region, a significant decrease in maximum temperature was recorded during the fruit-setting stage. These findings indicate that over the past 27 years, climatic changes in the Sirmour district have had a generally positive impact on the productivity of most fruit crops, except guava, which exhibited a decline in yield. This analysis highlighted the critical need for adaptive strategies in the face of evolving climate patterns to sustain and enhance agricultural productivity in the region.